F-35 Block 4 Upgrade Delayed Until 2031

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The modernization of the F-35 Block 4 program has encountered significant delays, with the U.S. Department of Defense now projecting its completion no earlier than 2031. This marks a five-year setback from the original timeline, raising concerns about the program’s long-term viability and strategic implications. The delay reflects broader challenges in defense procurement and technological integration within complex weapons systems.

F-35. Photo: af.mil

In response to these challenges, the Block 4 program has undergone a major restructuring, resulting in the creation of several subprograms. These subprograms will feature a reduced number of capabilities compared to the initial plan, which originally included 66 distinct upgrades. The final acquisition planning document, expected in fall 2025, will determine which of these capabilities will be retained moving forward.

The delay is further compounded by the dependency of certain advanced features on the upgraded F135 engine, which itself is facing production delays. The F135 engine upgrade is now projected to enter production no earlier than 2031, pushing back the deployment of post-Block 4 capabilities. Originally scheduled for 2029, these features are now unlikely to be operational before 2033, creating a ripple effect across the program’s development timeline.

Financial oversight has also come under scrutiny, particularly regarding the cost-effectiveness of the Block 4 upgrade. The last official cost estimate in 2021 placed the program at $16.5 billion, but a revised figure is expected by the end of 2025. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has criticized the use of contract incentives that reward contractors despite delays in aircraft and engine deliveries.

Production performance has been inconsistent, with Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney both experiencing setbacks throughout 2024. These delays are largely attributed to supply chain disruptions and technological hurdles that have hindered the timely delivery of F-35 aircraft and F135 engines. The cascading impact of these issues has affected not only the Block 4 timeline but also broader operational readiness across the fleet.

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